Study
A continental system for forecasting bird migration
Van Doren, Benjamin M.; Horton, Kyle G.
Science, 2018
Used two decades of United States weather-radar data to measure nightly migration intensity, then modelled it against atmospheric conditions to forecast migration days in advance.
- Studied in
- Aves
- Sample size
- twenty-three years of weather-radar migration measurements across the United States
Nightly migration intensity is predictable from weather, with atmospheric conditions accounting for the great majority of variation, and forecasts skilful up to a week ahead.
What it means
The authors' reading, and ours. Where they differ, that difference is the point.
How the authors put it
Migration at continental scale is a weather-driven phenomenon that can be forecast like weather itself, which makes targeted conservation actions such as reducing light on peak nights possible.
How NatureHQ reads it
The record for a point NatureHQ makes repeatedly: migration can be measured without identifying a single individual. Radar counts birds it cannot name, which is a weakness for a species question and exactly the right instrument for asking how many are moving tonight.
- Radar measures biomass aloft; it does not identify species, and insects must be filtered out.
- Continental United States coverage; the method needs a dense radar network.
- Forecasts intensity, not destination.
What this study is used for on NatureHQ
One study can inform several subjects. Here is everywhere this one is cited.
Migration
Day length decides roughly when to go, because it is the one signal that never drifts. Weather decides the night: migrants wait, then leave in pulses when the wind turns favourable.
How we know where animals go
Weather radar sees migration. It cannot tell you which birds, or where they are going — but it counts how many are in the air tonight across a continent, and that turns out to be predictable from the weather.
Published by: American Association for the Advancement of SciencePublished in Science or Science Advances (AAAS).
doi.org/10.1126/science.aat7526
Checked against Crossref on 2026-09-28, and they agree on the title, the authors and the year.
NatureHQ summarises research in its own words and does not reproduce published text. Reviewed 2026-09-03.