Study
The UK’s suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates
Metelmann, Soeren; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E.; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2019
Drives a temperature- and rainfall-dependent mosquito population model with UK climate data for current conditions and future scenarios, estimating where and for how long populations of Aedes albopictus could persist.
- Studied in
- Aedes albopictus
- Sample size
- climate-driven population model across UK grid cells and scenarios
Modelled suitability for Aedes albopictus in the UK is currently limited and concentrated in the warmest parts of southern England, and increases under warmer future scenarios, with the length of the suitable season a key constraint.
What it means
The authors' reading, and ours. Where they differ, that difference is the point.
How the authors put it
Climatic suitability for this species in the UK is presently marginal and is projected to increase.
How NatureHQ reads it
Included as the modelled counterpart to a detection, and as the clearest available illustration of a distinction this site insists on: climate suitability is a statement about conditions, not a prediction of occupancy. A place can be suitable and empty, because nothing has arrived or because arrivals have not persisted; and a place can hold mosquitoes through a summer without being suitable enough for them to survive a winter.
- A model of one species, with results sensitive to the climate scenario and to model parameters.
- Modelled suitability does not account for introduction pressure, urban microclimates or control measures.
What this study is used for on NatureHQ
One study can inform several subjects. Here is everywhere this one is cited.
Published by: The Royal SocietyPublished by the Royal Society.
doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2018.0761
Checked against Crossref on 2026-09-28, and they agree on the title, the authors and the year.
NatureHQ summarises research in its own words and does not reproduce published text. Reviewed 2026-09-04.