Study
Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas
Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Macdonald, David W.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015
Population trend data from dozens of lion populations across Africa were analysed to project trajectories by region, distinguishing populations inside intensively managed fenced reserves from those in unfenced systems.
- Studied in
- Panthera leo
- Sample size
- population trend data from 47 lion populations across Africa
Lion populations are declining across most of Africa, with the steepest declines in West and Central Africa, while populations in four southern African countries with intensively managed reserves are stable or increasing. The species is projected to decline substantially in unmanaged systems over coming decades. Lions occupy a small fraction of their historical range.
What it means
The authors' reading, and ours. Where they differ, that difference is the point.
How the authors put it
The species-level picture conceals divergent regional trajectories, and the difference tracks management intensity rather than any biological factor.
How NatureHQ reads it
The divergence is the finding, and a single continental figure would hide it entirely. Lions are increasing in some intensively managed southern African reserves and collapsing across West Africa, and averaging those produces a number that describes nowhere. It also raises a question the paper is careful about rather than answering: the populations doing well are largely fenced, which is conservation of a specific and constrained kind, and whether that model is what anyone wants at scale is a value judgement rather than an ecological result.
- Trend data quality varies enormously between populations and regions.
- Projections carry wide uncertainty, particularly where the underlying census is weak.
- Asiatic lions in India are a separate small population not covered by these trends.
What this study is used for on NatureHQ
One study can inform several subjects. Here is everywhere this one is cited.
Published by: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPublished in PNAS.
doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500664112
This reference was resolved automatically against Crossref on 2026-08-11.
NatureHQ summarises research in its own words and does not reproduce published text. Reviewed 2026-08-11.