Study
The global tree restoration potential
Bastin, J.-F.; Finegold, Y.; Garcia, C.; Mollicone, D.; Rezende, M.; Routh, D.; Zohner, C. M.; Crowther, T. W.
Science, 2019
Ground measurements of tree cover were used to model where trees could grow under current climate, excluding existing forest, cropland and urban areas, and the resulting area was converted into a potential carbon store.
- Sample size
- global remote-sensing and ground-reference dataset
The model identified roughly 0.9 billion hectares of additional canopy cover as climatically possible, which the paper converted into a very large potential carbon store.
What it means
The authors' reading, and ours. Where they differ, that difference is the point.
How the authors put it
Global tree restoration is among the most effective available carbon drawdown solutions.
How NatureHQ reads it
Included because it is the source of a claim readers arrive with, and because what happened next is the more useful lesson. The paper drew formal technical comments disputing the area, the carbon conversion and the treatment of grasslands and savannas as degraded land, and the authors issued a correction to the carbon figure. NatureHQ therefore treats the headline number as contested rather than as a finding, and treats the episode as a good illustration of how a single striking figure travels much further and faster than the objections to it.
- Climatic suitability for tree cover is not the same as land being available, appropriate or ecologically empty.
- The carbon calculation was corrected after publication.
- Treats naturally open ecosystems as candidates for tree cover, which several respondents disputed.
contested reanalysis
Multiple technical comments in the same journal challenged the restoration area, the carbon accounting and the classification of grassy biomes as restorable; the authors published a correction to the carbon estimate.
What this study is used for on NatureHQ
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Published by: American Association for the Advancement of SciencePublished in Science or Science Advances (AAAS).
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